Diplomatic Plans Set to be Presented to Moscow Within Days, States Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist
After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.
Security Guarantees and Allied Backing
“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”
However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Kremlin Response and Land Issue
On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Potential Outcomes
It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.
